Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
